Local Philippine National Police and Armed Forces of the Philippines Update

European Pressphoto Agency

Students evacuate from a compound near where members of the Moro National Liberation Front occupied villages in Zamboanga City, southern Philippines on Monday. (Wall Street Journal)

Investigators of the local Philippine National Police through constant monitoring of the movements and strength of the MNLF armed group inside Zamboanga City declared that there are over one hundred elements of the Bangsa Moro secessionist movement inside the City.

Since the City of Zamboanga has been a haven for both Christians and Muslims alike, it is not totally impossible that some members of the Islamic community will simply change their attire and join or sign up with the MNLF at the siege area.

This dovetails with the report from the Armed Forces of the Philippines that there has been no significant reduction in the force strength of the MNLF in Zamboanga City owing to the fact that the members of the armed band that were captured are not from the siege area in Zamboanga. These MNLF fighters were fresh arrivals from Cotabato.

However, on the safe side, the military spokesman and the media consistently states that there are merely about fifty MNLF fighters remaining in Zamboanga City.

The reinforcements for the beleaguered MNLF fighters inside the City will continue to pour into the vicinity of Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga City. This means that if no settlement will be arrived at in the soonest possible time, the deaths and other casualties will mount to hundreds, then to thousands and could possibly reach the death toll during the protracted Muslim rebellion in the South of over one hundred thousand.

Old memories die hard and with the potential for high profile shaking up of the incumbent regime, the conflict in the Zamboanga Peninsula could possibly drag on for another few weeks. If it succeeds in doing so, the trouble could last another few months; if unresolved, it will become protracted and press on during the next few years. In the process, the neighboring states of Malaysia and Indonesia could be affected, whether because of their close ties and record of collaboration and cooperation with the local Islamic community or just because of their simple proximity to the Philippine archipelago.

Should the scenario actually happen, one of the disadvantaged will be the United States of America because of its long and deep involvement in the peace process between the Government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. 

The worst disadvantaged will be Zamboanga City.

Photo Gallery: Zamboanga When Will There Be Peace?

Related Posts:

Fox News: Government to charge MNLF leader

Philippine Star: President Aquino's hardline stance

Confusion at the battle front

Feed from Rebus 21

Despite the danger of escalating tensions towards full-scale war, certain shady individuals are goading both parties enmeshed in the hostilities and appear to be the ones who organized the hostage-taking as well as the burning of entire villages in Zamboanga.

Captured persons alleged to be members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) confessed to interrogators that they were not ordered to participate in a war.

Before jumping off from Basilan into Zamboanga-bound bancas (small sea vessels commonly used by fishermen), they were told to support the prayer rally - educational assembly or teach-in against the pork barrel at the EDSA Shrine in Ortigas by holding a similar rally in Zamboanga City. Read more from here.

There is hope that the people of Zamboanga themselves and the entire MNLF will do something about this, or else they are going to be the sore losers that many individuals now are painting them to be.

Fouth Generation (4G) Warfare Mindanao

Feed from Rebus 21:

Events in Western Mindanao at the present time all point towards escalating fourth generation war.

4G warfare is defined as early as in 1989 as amorphous (without shape and specific definition), stateless, borderless, non-conventional war. It is also timeless. For demonstration, the overly protracted conflict between Israel and selected Middle East neighbors have overblown into 4G warfare. However, its worst feature is that 4G warfare crosses all lines of demarcation: it does not distinguish between soldier-combatants and civilians. This form of warfare shows its antagonists engage in all sorts of unimaginable acts and does not follow the Geneva Conventions on agreed upon humanitarian considerations during wartime.

Although some military historians and analysts refuse to accept the 4G warfare (as well as the much-propounded 5th Generation warfare - 5G) doctrine, arguing that both the 4G and 5G concepts of warfare are weak in that they are governed by their own aspects of conventionality it is still in order to recognize the burgeoning threat to life and property, to the economic well-being of a social enclave or a country of minor conflict rapidly escalating into bigger war. Read more here.

Related articles:

Business Mirror: Increasing number of Zamboanga casualties

Bloomberg.com on spreading violence in Zamboanga

Xinhua.net warning about threat escalating

ANC: Analyst says government must listen to Misuari

Sunstar: Cebu raises alert level

Philippine Star: Government force augmentation - 500 Scout Rangers sent to Zamboanga

CNN early news on hostage taking in Zamboanga